The MLB postseason field wasn’t settled until the final afternoon of the regular season yesterday. The Phillies won Game 162 to take the last National League wild card and eliminate Arizona. The Astros clinched the AL West when Texas lost to Minnesota, which makes Houston a division champion at 81-81 and, per CBS Sports, the first division winner in a 162-game season without a winning record. The Rays (98-64) held off the Yankees for the top seed in the American League, and Cleveland (85-77) took the AL Central and the other bye. In the National League, Milwaukee’s 103-59 record earned the No. 1 seed. Los Angeles (100-62) is No. 2 and chasing baseball’s first three-peat since the 2000 to 2002 Yankees.
The wild card round starts tomorrow, and the marquee series is Red Sox at Yankees, best of three, first pitch at 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Boston was 14 games under .500 in late June and was priced around 100-to-1 to win the World Series in early July. They now get to knock out the Yankees in the Bronx and sit at roughly 14-1 to 16-1 depending on the book. The other series are White Sox at Astros, Phillies at Braves and Cubs at Padres. The White Sox got in after three straight 100-loss seasons, and the Padres closed with a 43-23 second-half run. The World Series market is still a Dodgers market, at +200 to +230 at most sportsbooks, with the Brewers around +500 to +600 and the Rays at +750.
Football moved faster than baseball this weekend. Week 3 of the NFL and Week 4 of college football both reshuffled the championship boards, so here are our picks for each. To the board.
TRADE 1: 2027 NFL Champion
Late last week Kalshi had Buffalo at 13 cents and the Rams at 12. Then the Rams led Denver 16-0 at halftime and lost 30-26 on Sunday night after Bo Nix engineered a 30-point second-half comeback. Matthew Stafford threw for 403 yards and two touchdowns but also a 66-yard pick-six that gave Denver the lead, and Los Angeles is now 1-2. Myles Garrett has been on injured reserve since September 17 after arthroscopic knee surgery, and Puka Nacua has a hip issue. Both are reportedly back soon. Sportsbooks haven’t reacted much. DraftKings still has the Rams at +650 this morning and the Bills at +700.
Buffalo is 3-0 after beating the Chargers 24-16, Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, and the Bills cost about the same as a team that just blew a 16-point lead. Baltimore (+900) is back to 2-1 after beating Dallas 34-31 in Rio. Our pick: Buffalo.
TRADE 2: NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion
Georgia now leads Polymarket at 16%. Ohio State is at 14%, Notre Dame and Texas at 13%, Miami at 10%, Indiana at 8% and LSU at 6%. Georgia earned the top spot by beating Oklahoma 41-13 with a 21-point second quarter, a week after a 45-17 win at Arkansas. Texas slipped even in a win, needing a 20-17 finish at Tennessee. Ohio State beat Illinois 42-19 but still carries its loss to Texas. Notre Dame beat Purdue 49-10. Indiana, a 21-point favorite Friday night, beat Northwestern only 29-23.
The biggest drop belonged to Ole Miss. The Rebels were ranked No. 4 and lost 52-28 at Florida with running back Kewan Lacy out, and they now trade around 2%. Florida sits at about 3%. Oregon (5%) has a quarterback question after Dante Moore left the USC game following a collision and Dylan Raiola finished a 41-27 win. Our pick: Georgia. If you want a price instead of a favorite, Ohio State at 14% has the best path, since a one-loss Big Ten team with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith still has room in a 12-team field.
That’s the bell. Have a great week.
About The Spread Sheet
Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.
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