Lane Kiffin got exactly what he had coming. His return to Oxford was mercilessly booed from the moment he arrived, and Ole Miss sent him home a loser, 32-24, on a fourth-and-goal interception in the end zone with under a minute left. Trinidad Chambliss, the quarterback Kiffin recruited out of a Division II program and personally developed into a star, outplayed Kiffin’s own guy in the building Kiffin walked out on. New Ole Miss coach Pete Golding capped it off on live television, telling Holly Rowe he figured the school’s chancellor and athletic director would “have a beer tonight” after sending Kiffin home with a loss. And in case the message wasn’t clear enough, Ole Miss played Garth Brooks’ “Callin’ Baton Rouge,” LSU’s own celebration song, over the loudspeakers as the building emptied. Ole Miss is now 3-0 and up to No. 4 in the country. Ohio State remains the national championship favorite, but Ole Miss’s odds rose noticeably after the win, and the market has started taking the Rebels seriously as a real contender rather than a feel-good story.
The rest of the weekend delivered plenty on its own. The Panthers beat the Falcons 34-3, their first win as an actual favorite in nearly five years. The Vikings ground out a 9-3 defensive slog over the Bears, who lost Caleb Williams to a hamstring injury in the process. Cleveland pulled off a real upset, beating Tampa Bay 23-19 as eight-point underdogs. And Houston fell to 0-2 after a 20-6 loss to Cincinnati, prompting head coach DeMeco Ryans to publicly challenge his own locker room: if you call yourselves playmakers, where are the plays. The one game still left on the board closes out the week tonight, and it happens to be the one we flagged last Friday. To the board.
TRADE 1: New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium is the last game of the week, and it is the same matchup we flagged as undervalued risk for the Rams on Friday. Kalshi still has the Rams as heavy favorites, with Giants contracts trading in the mid-20-cent range, essentially unchanged from where they sat before the weekend even started. That is worth noting on its own: a full slate of games came and went, and the market barely moved this line, which means tonight is genuinely the first real data point anyone gets on how much losing Myles Garrett for the year actually costs Los Angeles. Jaxson Dart and the Giants showed real signs of life beating Dallas in Week 1. Tonight tells you whether that was a fluke or a floor.
TRADE 2: College Football Playoff Championship
Ohio State remains the favorite, but Saturday night moved real money toward Ole Miss, and it is easy to see why. A team that started the season with a first-year coach replacing a guy who left in disgrace just beat a top-10 rival by outplaying them in the fourth quarter of the most emotionally loaded game of the year. Running back Kewan Lacy banged up his shoulder in the win but is not expected to miss significant time, which matters given how much of Ole Miss’s offense runs through him. The market has not crowned anyone yet, and it shouldn’t. But a three-loss résumé concern that looked like Ole Miss’s ceiling in August now looks like the floor for a team that just went into a top-10 road environment and won.
TRADE 3: NFL MVP
Josh Allen has turned this into a one-man race in two weeks. He opened the season at +600, and after back-to-back historic performances, first 334 yards and two rushing touchdowns against Houston’s top-ranked defense, then five total touchdowns in a 41-31 win over Detroit, his odds have collapsed to +275, the shortest they have been all season. Allen now has nine total touchdowns without a single turnover through two games. Only two other players in the Super Bowl era have opened a season that way: Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Peyton Manning in 2013. Both won MVP. He is also the first player in NFL history with five-plus passing touchdowns and four-plus rushing touchdowns in his first two games, period. Lamar Jackson sits a distant second, with Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, and Patrick Mahomes bunched behind him. Caleb Williams briefly rocketed into the conversation after a huge Week 1 in Chicago, then dropped off the board entirely with a hamstring injury, which tells you how quickly this race can turn. Two weeks does not make a season. But history says nobody has ever started like this and finished outside the conversation.
That’s the bell. Kiffin got booed, beaten, and trolled with his own rival’s fight song in the same night, the Texans have a coach publicly calling out his own roster, and the last game of the week could be the one that actually tells you something real about a $12.5 billion franchise. Have a great week. Monday night closes the book on Week 2.
About The Spread Sheet
Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.
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Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.