Drake Maye had five touchdowns on Sunday.
The prediction markets had a reaction.
The Patriots quarterback threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns, added another score on the ground, and led New England to a 45-17 demolition of the Las Vegas Raiders.
It was the second consecutive impressive performance from Maye, who appears to have rediscovered the form that made him an MVP finalist last season.
The Patriots have now won two straight, including a victory over Buffalo, and the market is starting to take notice.
New England’s probability of making the playoffs has climbed to 71%, up 10 points. Its chances of winning the AFC East have increased to 35%.
That’s a significant repricing for a team that was 1-2 just two weeks ago.
Elsewhere, Jeremiah Smith continues to separate himself from the Heisman field, Milwaukee has taken the first game of the NLCS, and the Bills face a consequential Monday night matchup against the Rams.
Here’s what the market is telling us this week.
THE BOARD
Five markets worth watching as the week opens.
NEW ENGLAND MAKES THE PLAYOFFS
71% | Up 10 points
The Patriots are back above .500, and the market has responded.
JEREMIAH SMITH WINS THE HEISMAN
55% | Up 8 points on the latest market move
The Ohio State receiver remains the clear favorite after another two-touchdown performance.
MILWAUKEE WINS THE WORLD SERIES
34% | Up from 25% in Friday’s edition
The Brewers have drawn nearly even with Los Angeles after taking Game 1 of the NLCS.
RAMS BEAT THE BILLS
61% | Buffalo 39%
Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen meet Monday night, with Los Angeles favored at home.
OHIO STATE BEATS INDIANA
61% | Indiana 39%
Saturday’s Big Ten showdown is considerably closer than Ohio State’s recent results might suggest.
Market prices are Monday morning snapshots and will change as trading continues. Kalshi
THE BIG TRADE
YES: NEW ENGLAND TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
Market: 71%
Trade New England to make the playoffs
Two weeks ago, the Patriots looked like a team trying to figure out what had gone wrong.
Now they’re beginning to look like a team that could make some noise in January.
The difference is Drake Maye.
Against Las Vegas, Maye completed 26 of 34 passes for 374 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He also scored on a three-yard run.
New England generated 536 yards of offense and averaged more than eight yards per play.
The Raiders couldn’t stop anything.
Maye’s five-touchdown performance followed a three-touchdown passing game against Buffalo, giving him eight passing touchdowns over his last two starts.
The Patriots have scored 79 points over that stretch. Reuters
The market is responding to something more meaningful than two victories.
It’s responding to the possibility that New England’s offense has figured itself out.
There are reasons for caution.
The Patriots are still 3-2. Their offensive line has suffered injuries, and the secondary remains thin. The AFC also has several teams capable of winning 11 or more games.
But the upcoming schedule creates an opportunity.
New England hosts the Jets next Sunday before traveling to Chicago and Miami. The market currently gives the Patriots a 75% probability of beating New York. Kalshi
At 71%, the playoff market isn’t offering much of a discount.
But if Maye continues playing anywhere near this level, New England’s probability could move considerably higher before November.
THE TRADE: YES
THREE TRADES
1. YES: JEREMIAH SMITH TO WIN THE HEISMAN
Market: 55%
Trade Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman
Jeremiah Smith didn’t need another 200-yard performance to remind everyone who owns the Heisman race.
Two touchdowns were enough.
Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16 on Saturday, with Smith catching two first-half touchdown passes as the Buckeyes overwhelmed the Terrapins.
His Heisman probability has climbed to approximately 55%, leaving Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at 12% and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr at 7%.
The market is increasingly treating this as Smith’s award to lose. Testudo Times
That’s an extraordinary position for a wide receiver in October.
The challenge comes Saturday.
Ohio State hosts unbeaten Indiana in one of the biggest Big Ten games of the season. The Buckeyes are favored, but only at 61%.
Smith’s Heisman campaign has been built on memorable performances against increasingly difficult opponents.
Indiana provides another opportunity to deliver one.
THE TRADE: YES
2. YES: MILWAUKEE TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES
Market: 34%
Trade Milwaukee to win the World Series
The Dodgers entered the National League Championship Series as the favorite.
Milwaukee apparently didn’t get the memo.
The Brewers took Game 1 on Sunday night, beating Los Angeles 2-1 behind a solo home run from Brice Turang, an RBI single from rookie Luis Lara, and another impressive performance from their bullpen.
Milwaukee’s pitchers held the Dodgers scoreless over the final seven innings.
That included 4⅔ shutout innings from the bullpen. Reuters
The market has responded.
Milwaukee now sits around 34% to win the World Series, virtually even with the Dodgers.
That’s a significant shift from Friday, when Los Angeles held a commanding lead in the championship market.
The Brewers won 103 games during the regular season, the most in baseball.
They’re now three victories away from the World Series.
The Dodgers have the stars and the championship pedigree.
Milwaukee has home-field advantage, an outstanding pitching staff, and the first game of the series.
THE TRADE: YES
3. YES: BUFFALO TO BEAT LOS ANGELES
Market: Buffalo 39% | Rams 61%
Monday Night Football features two of the NFL’s biggest quarterback stars.
Josh Allen against Matthew Stafford.
The market currently favors Los Angeles at 61%, leaving Buffalo with a 39% probability of winning on the road.
That’s a meaningful discount for a team that entered the season among the AFC favorites.
Buffalo is coming off a loss to New England, while the Rams have had additional time to prepare.
But Allen remains one of the most dangerous players in football, particularly in games where the Bills are forced to rely on his ability to create offense.
The larger question is whether the market is reacting too strongly to Buffalo’s recent loss.
A 39% probability implies the Bills should win this matchup roughly four times in ten.
That feels like a reasonable place to challenge the consensus.
THE TRADE: YES ON BUFFALO
THE MISPRICING
DRAKE MAYE’S MVP PROBABILITY
The Patriots have a 71% chance of making the playoffs.
Drake Maye has approximately a 6% chance of winning NFL MVP.
Those two numbers are not necessarily inconsistent.
But they are worth watching.
Maye finished second in MVP voting last season. He has now produced consecutive standout performances, including Sunday’s five-touchdown game.
If New England keeps winning and Maye continues putting up numbers like these, his individual awards market could move considerably faster than the team’s playoff probability.
There is still a long way to go.
Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and several other quarterbacks have stronger current MVP cases.
But the market is offering a reminder that team success and individual awards are priced separately.
OUR CALL: WATCH MAYE’S MVP MARKET.
The next two weeks could determine whether he’s a legitimate contender or simply enjoying an excellent stretch.
THE WATCHLIST
MONDAY: BILLS AT RAMS
8:15 PM ET
Los Angeles is favored at 61%.
A Buffalo victory would strengthen the Bills’ position in the AFC and could also change how the market views New England’s earlier win over them.
MONDAY: DODGERS AT BREWERS
5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee leads the NLCS 1-0.
Another Brewers victory would put the Dodgers in an uncomfortable position before the series moves to Los Angeles.
MONDAY: GUARDIANS AT RAYS
8:00 PM ET
The American League Championship Series begins in Tampa Bay.
The Rays currently hold approximately 62% of the AL pennant market, with Cleveland around 39%.
The winner of this series will face either Milwaukee or Los Angeles in the World Series. Kalshi
SATURDAY: INDIANA AT OHIO STATE
Noon ET
Ohio State is favored at 61%.
For Jeremiah Smith, this is another opportunity to separate himself from the Heisman field.
For Indiana, it’s a chance to establish itself as one of the country’s legitimate national championship contenders.
SUNDAY: JETS AT PATRIOTS
1:00 PM ET
New England is favored at approximately 75%.
Another win would move the Patriots to 4-2 and give Drake Maye a third consecutive opportunity to strengthen his MVP case.
ONE NUMBER
71%
That’s New England’s current playoff probability.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots were searching for answers.
Now they’re one of the more interesting teams in the AFC.
The market has moved.
The question is whether it has moved enough.
We’ll keep the receipts and settle the books Friday.
The bell is open.
About The Spread Sheet
The Spread Sheet tracks what sports prediction markets are pricing and where the action is moving. We break down the biggest market shifts, explain what is driving them, and call where the market may be right, wrong or moving too fast.
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Disclosures
Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.