THE CLOSE
The Dodgers entered the week as World Series favorites.
They won’t be playing in the World Series.
The Milwaukee Brewers completed a four-game sweep of Los Angeles on Thursday night, advancing to their first World Series since 1982.
And Jake Bauers was right in the middle of it.
Down 4-0 in Game 4, Milwaukee rallied behind a two-run double and a game-tying bases-loaded walk from Bauers. Garrett Mitchell delivered the go-ahead home run, and the Brewers finished off a 6-4 victory.
Bauers was named NLCS MVP after driving in six runs during the series.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, watched their pursuit of a third consecutive championship end without winning a single game in the NLCS.
Prediction markets have responded.
Milwaukee entered Monday with a 34% probability of winning the World Series.
By Friday morning, that number had climbed to approximately 66%.
That’s a 32-point move in four days.
For a team that won 103 regular-season games, the Brewers have spent much of October trying to convince the market they’re as good as their record.
They may have finally succeeded.
Here’s what the market got right, what it got wrong, and where we’re looking this weekend.
THE TAPE
MILWAUKEE WINS THE WORLD SERIES
Monday: 34%
Friday: Approximately 66%
Move: Up 32 percentage points
CLEVELAND WINS THE ALCS
Series opening: 41%
Friday: 62%
Move: Up 21 percentage points
JEREMIAH SMITH WINS THE HEISMAN
Monday: 55%
Friday: 54%
Move: Down 1 percentage point
NEW ENGLAND MAKES THE PLAYOFFS
Monday: 71%
Friday: 72%
Move: Up 1 percentage point
BUFFALO BEATS LOS ANGELES
Monday: 39%
Result: Buffalo wins 37-34 in overtime
Status: Settled YES
All prices are market snapshots. Monday comparisons use our October 12 Opening Bell.
THE CROWD WAS RIGHT
CLEVELAND’S PITCHING IS FOR REAL
The Guardians entered Thursday’s ALCS Game 3 as narrow favorites.
The market gave Cleveland approximately a 53% chance of beating Tampa Bay.
Cleveland won 3-2.
Petey Halpin hit a decisive two-run home run in the fifth inning, while the Guardians’ pitching staff struck out 13 Rays hitters and allowed just three hits.
Cleveland now leads the series 2-1.
The bigger story is what has happened to the AL pennant market.
Tampa Bay entered the series as the favorite, with a 59% probability of advancing.
Cleveland was priced at 41%.
Four days later, the Guardians have taken control of the series and moved to approximately 62%.
The market initially favored Tampa Bay over seven games, but correctly identified Cleveland as a narrow favorite in Thursday’s matchup.
THE VERDICT: YES.
THE CROWD BLEW IT
THE DODGERS WERE SUPPOSED TO COME BACK
Trade the World Series championship market
The Dodgers were favored to win Game 2 of the NLCS.
They lost.
They were favored again in Game 3.
They lost.
They entered Game 4 with their season on the line, jumped out to a four-run lead, and lost again.
Los Angeles was priced at 56% to win Game 2 and 62% to win Game 3.
Milwaukee won both games and completed the sweep Thursday. Kalshi News
This is what makes the series so interesting from a prediction-market perspective.
The Dodgers had the bigger payroll, the bigger stars, and two consecutive championships.
Milwaukee had the better regular-season record.
Yet the market repeatedly gave Los Angeles the edge, even after the Brewers had demonstrated they could beat them.
Some of that was reasonable. The Dodgers have an extraordinary collection of talent.
But the market appears to have underestimated Milwaukee’s ability to win games without relying on individual superstars.
The Brewers pitched, defended, manufactured runs, and delivered timely hits.
Four games.
Four victories.
THE VERDICT: NO.
OUR RECEIPTS
Monday’s Opening Bell featured four calls.
Here’s where they stand.
1. YES: BUFFALO TO BEAT LOS ANGELES
Monday price: 39%
Result: WIN
Josh Allen delivered.
Buffalo defeated the Rams 37-34 in overtime Monday night, with Allen accounting for 331 total yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills needed a blocked field goal from Greg Rousseau and a 45-yard game-winner from Tyler Bass to finish the job.
We backed Buffalo at a 39% implied probability.
The trade settled YES.
OUR RESULT: WIN
2. YES: MILWAUKEE TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES
Monday: 34%
Friday: Approximately 66%
Trade Milwaukee to win the World Series
The Brewers have nearly doubled their championship probability since Monday.
Our position remains open, but the market has moved substantially in our direction.
OUR RESULT: OPEN, UP 32 POINTS
3. YES: NEW ENGLAND TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
Monday: 71%
Friday: 72%
Trade New England to make the playoffs
The Patriots haven’t played since Sunday’s victory over Las Vegas.
Their playoff probability has edged higher, but the next meaningful test arrives Sunday against the Jets.
OUR RESULT: OPEN, UP 1 POINT
4. YES: JEREMIAH SMITH TO WIN THE HEISMAN
Monday: 55%
Friday: 54%
Trade Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman
Smith remains the overwhelming favorite, but the market has cooled slightly ahead of Ohio State’s matchup with Indiana.
The next 24 hours could reshape the entire race.
OUR RESULT: OPEN, DOWN 1 POINT
THE SCORECARD
One settled trade.
One win.
Three open positions.
We’ll continue marking every call against its original price rather than treating favorable market movement as a completed victory.
THE MOVE OF THE WEEK
MILWAUKEE: 34% TO 66%
Trade Milwaukee to win the World Series
The Brewers’ World Series probability has climbed approximately 32 percentage points since Monday.
That’s the largest move among the markets we’ve been tracking this week.
But the more interesting question is what happens next.
Milwaukee has already eliminated the Dodgers.
It will host the World Series opener on October 23 against either Cleveland or Tampa Bay.
The Brewers will also have several days to rest their pitching staff and prepare for whichever American League opponent emerges.
At approximately 66%, however, Milwaukee is no longer the underdog.
The market now gives the Brewers roughly a two-in-three chance of winning their first World Series championship.
That’s an enormous amount of confidence.
Especially in baseball.
OUR CALL: HOLD THE ORIGINAL YES. WATCH AT THE NEW PRICE.
The market has caught up to Milwaukee.
Whether it has gone too far is the next question.
THE WEEKEND BOARD
1. OHIO STATE AT INDIANA
Saturday, October 17 | Noon ET
Ohio State: 61% | Indiana: 39%
Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman campaign faces its biggest test of the season.
Ohio State enters Saturday as the favorite, but Indiana is undefeated and playing at home.
Smith has 916 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns through six games.
The Buckeyes’ offense has increasingly revolved around getting him the ball, and the Heisman market has responded accordingly.
But Indiana presents a different challenge.
The Hoosiers are allowing fewer than 12 points per game, while Ohio State is surrendering just over 13.
This could be a much more physical, lower-scoring game than either team’s offensive statistics suggest.
OUR CALL: YES ON OHIO STATE.
A strong Smith performance could push his Heisman probability toward 60%.
2. TAMPA BAY AT CLEVELAND
Friday, October 16 | 8 PM ET
Game 4: Cleveland 50% | Tampa Bay 50%
Cleveland leads the series 2-1.
The market sees Friday’s game as a coin flip.
The Guardians’ pitching has been outstanding, but Tampa Bay still has enough offense to change the direction of the series.
Another Cleveland victory would put the Guardians one win away from the World Series.
OUR CALL: WATCH.
3. NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND
Sunday, October 18 | 1 PM ET
New England: 75% | New York: 25%
Drake Maye has thrown seven touchdown passes over his last two games.
The Patriots have scored 79 points during that stretch.
Now comes the challenge of sustaining it.
New England is a substantial favorite against the Jets, with the market giving the Patriots a 75% probability of winning.
That’s a reasonable reflection of how the two teams have performed recently.
But 75% is also an expensive price for a divisional game.
OUR CALL: WATCH NEW ENGLAND.
4. BUFFALO AT LAS VEGAS
Sunday, October 18 | 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo: 67% | Las Vegas: 33%
Josh Allen gave us our first settled win of the week.
Now the Bills head to Las Vegas.
Buffalo is trading at approximately 67% to win, which feels reasonable given the quarterback advantage.
But the Bills are coming off an emotional overtime victory and have had a short week to prepare.
The market is giving Las Vegas roughly a one-in-three chance of pulling the upset.
OUR CALL: YES ON BUFFALO.
5. ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE
Saturday, October 17 | 3:30 PM ET
Alabama: 74% | Tennessee: 26%
Alabama is a significant favorite heading into Knoxville.
The market gives Tennessee only a 26% chance of winning.
That’s a substantial gap for a rivalry game played in one of college football’s more difficult road environments.
The interesting question isn’t whether Alabama is better.
It’s whether the difference is large enough to justify a price near 75%.
OUR CALL: WATCH TENNESSEE.
THE LAST TRADE
The Dodgers were the favorites.
The Brewers won four straight.
Jake Bauers is the NLCS MVP.
And the team that spent much of October being treated like an underdog is now the favorite to win the World Series.
Prediction markets are very good at telling us what everyone believes.
They’re considerably less reliable at telling us what happens next.
We’ll see what the weekend does to the board.
The bell is closed.
About The Spread Sheet
The Spread Sheet tracks what sports prediction markets are pricing and where the action is moving. We break down the biggest market shifts, explain what is driving them, and call where the market may be right, wrong or moving too fast.
Follow
Disclosures
Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.