The Pope has entered the chat. Pope Leo XIV, Chicago-born, lifelong White Sox fan, sent a handwritten letter to owner Jerry Reinsdorf before the Wild Card Series, invoking “the Almighty’s abundant blessings” on a team that lost at least 101 games in three straight seasons, including a modern-era record 121 losses in 2024. The White Sox responded by sweeping the Astros in two games. Manager Will Venable, when asked about having the Vatican in his corner, said it “means a lot.” The Pope himself, asked if he deserved credit for the turnaround, played it coy: “No comment.” A man whose entire job is being the most powerful spiritual authority on earth would not take a victory lap over a .519 baseball team, which somehow makes it funnier. He attended the 2005 World Series opener as plain old Father Bob and watched the White Sox win it all. Twenty-one years later he’s got the hat, the hotline to the Almighty, and apparently the format down cold, because the letter worked exactly once and now Chicago draws Cleveland, favored at -156 heading into Saturday’s Game 1. We will find out this weekend whether the blessing has range.
But the actual most entertaining person in professional sports right now isn’t wearing a collar. It’s the White Sox’s own Munetaka Murakami, a $34 million free agent signing from Japan who spent eight seasons as the home run king of Nippon Professional Baseball and has spent his first MLB October doing postgame interviews that belong in a museum. After clinching a playoff spot in September, a reporter asked him to rate how he felt on a scale of 1 to 10. He grabbed the microphone and screamed “No 10!” into it. After the Wild Card sweep, soaked in champagne, asked how many bottles he’d opened, he shouted “100!” Then, asked what it meant to celebrate with his team, Murakami looked directly into the camera and roared, at full volume, “I’m Japanese!” It did not answer the question. It has never once needed to. A man who typically works through a translator found the one register that requires no translation at all, and it is pure, uncut joy. The Pope picked a team. Murakami is just having the best month of his life on television, live, every single night. To the board.
TRADE 1: White Sox vs. Guardians, ALDS
Cleveland opens as the favorite at -156 on the moneyline, -1.5 on the run line, with Game 1 Saturday in Cleveland. The Guardians have been here before, 14 division titles in franchise history, most recently last year. The White Sox have been here only in the sense that they technically qualified. But the way they got here matters. Chicago is the first team in major league history to make the playoffs immediately after three straight 100-loss seasons, and they just beat a 95-win Astros team twice in a row to prove the Wild Card wasn’t a fluke. Add the Pope’s letter and Murakami’s postgame routine to the file and you have either the best feel-good story in the sport or the most overpriced underdog on the board, possibly both at once.
TRADE 2: World Series Champion 2026
The Dodgers sit at roughly 30 to 31% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, the clear favorite chasing a third straight title, something no National League team has ever done. Milwaukee is next at 16.5 to 17%, owners of a franchise-record 103 wins and still priced as the clear second choice rather than a co-favorite, which tells you how much the market still trusts a rotation fronted by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow over a better regular-season record. The White Sox sit at 2.3%, tied for last among the twelve teams in the field. The Pope’s letter and a screaming rookie got them a playoff series win. The market isn’t ready to credit either one for a parade.
TRADE 3: Patriots vs. Bills
Sunday at Highmark Stadium, 1 p.m. ET, and Buffalo can take a commanding three-game lead in the AFC East with a win over the division rival they’ve already beaten three straight times. Kalshi has the Bills at 73% on the moneyline, favored by 6.5. Buffalo is 3-0, averaging over 400 yards a game, second in the NFL in total EPA, and Josh Allen remains the overwhelming MVP favorite despite nursing a knee issue that had his coach fielding questions about it all week. New England counters at 1-2 with Drake Maye, who’s been turnover-prone early, trying to avoid what the beat writers are already calling a trap game dressed up as a rivalry game. Allen was limping after Buffalo’s Week 3 win over the Chargers, Joe Brady says he’s “not concerned,” and the Bills opened as 7-point favorites before settling to 6.5. A healthy Allen in a game like this is the MVP race taking care of itself in real time. An unhealthy one is the first real scare the favorite has had all season.
That’s the bell. The Pope got one series out of a letter, Murakami is turning press conferences into performance art, and the Dodgers are old, banged up and still the team to beat. Have a great weekend. Baseball in October doesn’t need the help, but it’ll take all the help it can get.
About The Spread Sheet
Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.
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