Noah brings in Ryan Sickler to take the pulse of the American experience, starting with the fact that a Crunchwrap Supreme now costs almost seven dollars and there is a federally regulated financial contract tracking exactly how much worse it gets. The value menu was the last honest deal in America, and it has been quietly reengineered into a paltry product with a loyalty app attached. Every chain runs the same playbook now, the same shrinking portions, the same dynamic pricing, the same beige interior with a kiosk where a person used to stand, until every exit off every highway offers the identical sanitized version of the same meal at a price nobody thinks is a value. Then two Baltimore sports trades that split the difference between hope and grief, and we end with why Bad Bunny is going to be People’s Sexiest Man Alive.
In This Episode
Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme price in July 2026
Kalshi runs a live contract asking whether the average US price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in July hits at least $6.67, and the going rate sits right on the knife’s edge around $6.49, with menu prices this year ranging from roughly $5.84 to $6.89 depending on where you stand. It is a thin market, barely a few hundred dollars in daily volume, and a federally regulated exchange is running it. That is the actual story. Kalshi listing consumer price contracts is prediction markets colonizing territory that used to belong to CPI reports and cable news chyrons. Inflation used to be a number an economist announced. Now it is a tortilla you can short. Will the price clear $6.69 by the end of July?
NFL MVP
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are dead even as co-favorites at 11% each on Kalshi and Allen has a 3 point lead on Polymarket. The history is the hook. Lamar has been the market favorite going into each of the last three seasons and lost to Allen last year despite a top-three statistical campaign. The trade thesis is voter fatigue: the narrative slot for “first-time winner in a big market” beats “third for a Raven,” and Baltimore is breaking in a new staff under head coach Jesse Minter, though new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle was reportedly hired with Jackson specifically in mind. The market says coin flip. History says the voters find someone new. Does Lamar get another one?
Will the Orioles make the playoffs?
The pain trade. Baltimore sits fourth in the AL East at roughly 23% implied on the Playoff Qualifiers event, which is the market’s polite way of saying it is over without actually saying it. This is the emotional inverse of the Lamar segment: same city, same fanbase, opposite register. One trade is hope with a price on it, the other is grief with a price on it, and both resolve by winter. Is there a second-half run in this team, or is 23% generous?
People Magazine Sexiest Man 2026?
The closer, and the only market on the board decided by a magazine editor rather than a scoreboard. Bad Bunny leads the conversation coming off a year that put him at the center of American pop culture, and the contract resolves on a decision no model can forecast because it is not a competition, it is an editorial meeting. Every other market in this episode settles on a receipt, a stat line, or a standings page. This one settles on vibes and a cover shoot. Does Bad Bunny take the crown?
Trade the Markets
Every market in this episode is live. Links above. Odds move fast, so what you hear on the show may not be what you see when you click.
About The Spread Sheet
Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.
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Disclosures
Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.