Memorial Day. Banks closed. Markets open.
Polymarket doesn’t observe federal holidays. Kalshi doesn’t lower a flag. Somewhere right now a guy in basketball shorts is buying NO on whether Jesus returns before 2027. He has been doing this for six months. The price is two cents.
This week markets price: NBA conference finals, French clay, a California primary, the 2028 Democratic field, the Second Coming. Welcome to the week.
THE NBA
The Knicks are at 98% to win the East. They are up 3-0 on Cleveland and the market closed this series two weeks ago. Pretend to be surprised when it ends.
The West is the real basketball. Thunder up 2-1 on the Spurs. Wembanyama played 49 minutes in a double-overtime Game 1, went 14-for-25, hit twelve of thirteen free throws. The championship market still has the Thunder at 40.5%. Apparently 49 minutes of Wemby is a one-night thing. The Thunder defense is forever.
Game 5 is Tuesday. Find your guy with the Kalshi app open at the barbecue. Don’t make eye contact.
THE FRENCH OPEN
Started yesterday. Sinner is -310 to win it. Those are the second-shortest pre-tournament odds at any Grand Slam since 1990. The shortest belonged to Nadal in 2009. He lost in the fourth round.
Alcaraz is out with a wrist injury. The market did not blink. Sinner is 17-0 on clay this year. The only guy who beats him on dirt isn’t in the bracket. He’s won five straight Masters 1000s. The case against him is that they make you play the matches.
THE CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR PRIMARY
One week out. Polls have Republican Steve Hilton leading. Markets have Xavier Becerra at 62%. They cannot both be right.
Eric Swalwell was the favorite at 73% before he dropped out of the race. Markets have a short memory and an even shorter return policy.
MINNESOTA’S WAR ON MARKETS
Last Monday Minnesota became the first state to make hosting a prediction market a felony. Walz signed it. The CFTC sued him by Tuesday. The federal lawsuit beat the bill home from the signing ceremony.
The law takes effect August 1. Polymarket has a market on whether the law takes effect August 1. It is not the favorite.
Minnesota can’t even make its own ban the favorite.
Polymarket also lists a contract on Walz resigning before 2027 at 7%, and one on him being criminally charged before 2027 at 18%. The governor has more action on his own future than his ban has on the calendar.
Donald Trump Jr. is a paid adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
THE WILD CARD
The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market has cleared $1.16 billion in lifetime volume. Newsom sits at 24%. He is termed out of California, eyeing a 2028 run, and last week banned state officials from trading on Polymarket. Polymarket lists his price every day.
THE LOCK
Sinner to win Roland Garros. He’s 17-0 on clay. The only guy who beats him on dirt isn’t in the bracket. At -310 it’s not a bet, it’s a withdrawal slip. Take it.
Noah & The Spread Sheet team spreadsheetshow.substack.com
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