The market never sleeps, and from the city that never sleeps during a historic Knicks run in the NBA Finals Caitlin Peluffo. The New York comedian (The Tonight Show, The Late Show, Comedy Central, finalist on Kevin Hart’s Funny AF) joined Noah to break down the World Cup, NBA Finals MVP, Trump insults and what product will OpenAI launch?
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Which continent will win the World Cup?
The tournament kicks off across North America this month, and the market has already picked its lane: Europe is trading around 71 cents, with South America at 23. Everyone else, including the host continent, is splitting single digits. Forty-eight teams, three host countries, hundreds of millions in home-soil hype, and traders still think the trophy gets on a plane back across the Atlantic.
Noah and Caitlin dug into whether the home-continent discount is real or whether traders are just pricing in a century of history. Caitlin, a former college soccer player and a recent competitor on Mia Hamm’s team in The Goal Cup, came in with actual credentials. The CONCACAF longshot case got a fair hearing. The market remained unmoved.
Who will be the NBA Finals MVP?
Spurs vs. Knicks, and the MVP market is really two bets stacked on top of each other: who wins the series, and who gets the hardware if they do. Victor Wembanyama has been the frontrunner, trading north of 60 percent, with Jalen Brunson as the obvious answer if New York pulls it off. The sneaky angle the panel chewed on: even in a Spurs win, the award isn’t automatic, and that gap between championship odds and MVP odds is where the value hides.
Power Index
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
The market that asks traders to predict the unpredictable: what does the most aggressive product organization in tech ship next? Hardware, a browser, an agent, a social feed, a device you wear, a device you resent. Noah and Caitlin handicapped the categories, which mostly turned into a referendum on how much of your life you’re willing to hand to a company that hasn’t decided what it is yet. The comedy writes itself; the resolution criteria do not.
Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?
The most reliable recurring market in the prediction economy. Roughly $710K in volume, a fresh slate of names every month, and a resolution process that amounts to refreshing Truth Social. Jimmy Kimmel currently leads the June board near 59 percent. Previous editions have cashed tickets on Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly, and Barack Obama, which tells you the market doesn’t discriminate by party, only by proximity.
This is the purest version of what The Spread Sheet is about: a market where the underlying asset is one man’s temper and the trading thesis is “give it a week.”
Make It Pop
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
The internet’s favorite legal saga gets the market treatment. Traders have put nearly $65K behind the question of whether Braden Eric Peters, known online as Clavicular, actually sees a sentencing, with “Yes” trading around 16 cents. The fine print matters here: civil suits, investigations, and public accusations don’t count. Charges dropped, plea without judgment, dismissal, all resolve “No.” The market demands a conviction and a sentence, and 16 percent says traders think the discourse is running well ahead of the docket.
Caitlin and Noah closed the show on the broader phenomenon: prediction markets have become the only place where internet drama gets priced honestly. Twitter says he’s done. The market says 16 cents. One of those has money behind it.
Full episode on YouTube. Opening Bell lands Monday. Closing Bell wraps the week Friday.