Kerryn Feehan: S&P 500, Hot UFC Fighters, Will Kim K Pass the Bar, Big Ideas for Dating Shows, & more
Noah is joined by comedian Kerryn Feehan for an episode that asks civilization's most pressing questions. What makes UFC guys so hot. Can a billionaire with a private glam team and unlimited resources pass a test that community college kids clear on Adderall and vibes. And can a stock index that only goes up continue to only go up or are family owned vending machines where generational wealth is really built. One of these is a lock. One is a Scantron horror story four seasons in the making. And one is the most boring bet on the board, which is exactly why it prints. Three markets, three verdicts, and a make-a-market pitch about the future of the genre of television that makes America great.
In This Episode
Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
The crowd has a heavy favorite. Islam Makhachev sits around 68 to 70% to still own the belt on December 31, after making history at UFC 322 by dominating Jack Della Maddalena to become the first fighter ever to hold both the lightweight and welterweight titles. His 16-fight win streak ties a UFC record, and the division lacks anyone with an obvious stylistic answer, with a first defense potentially looming against Kamaru Usman. Everyone else, from Michael Morales to Carlos Prates to Ian Machado Garry, is fighting for the leftover 30%. Kerryn and Noah call the champ. Does anyone take the belt off Makhachev before the year is out?
Will Kim Kardashian Pass the Bar Exam Before 2027?
The most brutal paper trail on the board. Kalshi runs a contract on whether Kim passes the California bar by year-end, and the history is not kind. She failed the July 2025 exam and broke down about it on camera on The Kardashians. The February 2026 results posted May 1, and her name was not on the pass list. California runs a 30.8% pass rate, and the July 2026 sitting is her last realistic swing inside the contract window, with results landing in the fall.
What will the S&P 500 (SPY) hit in July 2026? The crowd puts a 62% chance that SPY tags $760 before the month is out. The index has run roughly 10% year-to-date and sits near record territory, with Wall Street targets clustered between 7,600 and 8,000 on projected 25% earnings growth, even as sticky inflation and a Fed signaling no cuts keep a lid on the optimism. This is the market segment that started it all, a straight bet on whether the number goes up, dressed in the same Yes-or-No clothes as a UFC belt and a bar exam. Does SPY clear 760 in July?
Make a Market
The closing pitch: what is the future of dating shows? Noah and Kerryn have some great ideas.
About The Spread Sheet
Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.
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Disclosures
Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.