Noah is joined by comedian Jamie Wolf for an episode that trades away from the news cycle and into the stuff nobody can control: whether an anonymous artist paints a wall, whether the weather ends a coastline, and whether Philadelphia’s football destiny is as inevitable as Philadelphia thinks and what happens if the Cowboys cheerleaders would roll into town.

In This Episode

Will Banksy Create a New Mural by December 31? The crowd says almost certainly, pricing a new confirmed Banksy piece at 87% before year-end. The comedy is the mechanics of the bet. This is a market on whether an anonymous man will secretly paint a wall, get authenticated by his own official channel, and do it before a deadline he never agreed to. The resolution depends entirely on Banksy deciding to be Banksy on schedule. Jamie on whether the world’s most famous artist can be counted on to show up for a market that treats his entire creative process like a Q4 earnings deadline.

Will Any Category 4 Hurricane Make Landfall in the US Before 2027? The crowd sits at 28% Yes, and the number is doing real work. NOAA and Colorado State forecasts point to a below-average 2026 Atlantic season, with emerging El Niño conditions raising wind shear and suppressing intensification, and CSU’s June update trimmed the outlook to roughly 11 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors. The market is not guessing. It is pricing a scientific consensus that a Category 4 landfall is unlikely but far from impossible. Jamie gets the uncomfortable segment: a market where a Yes is a genuine disaster and the money says probably not.

Who Will Win the NFC East? The Eagles are the Kalshi favorite to win the division again, with model reads projecting them first at nearly 10 wins and sportsbooks landing them around +115 to +140, an implied chance in the mid-40s. Philadelphia has taken the NFC East in five of the last nine seasons and just became the first repeat winner since the early 2000s. The question is whether destiny is real or whether Dallas, the perennial closest challenger, finally makes the division a race. Jamie on whether the Eagles fulfill their preseason prophecy or find a new way to torment their own fan base.

Make a Market

The closing pitch from the room: will the Los Angeles Lakers roll out an all-white starting five this season? A “make a market” segment where the guest proposes the contract, sets the line, and dares the crowd to trade it.

Trade the Markets

Every market in this episode is live. Links above. Odds move fast, so what you hear on the show may not be what you see when you click.

About The Spread Sheet

Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.

Follow
Web: spreadsheetshow.com
X: x.com/spreadsheetshow
Instagram: instagram.com/spreadsheetshow
TikTok: tiktok.com/@spreadsheetshow
YouTube: youtube.com/@spreadsheetshow

Disclosures
Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.

Prestige cinema arrived in a Porta-John this week. Jackass: Best and Last opened at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, the highest score in franchise history, and critics reached for the word “poignant” to describe a movie whose climax is a robot administering a prostate exam. Kalshi traders spent the week pricing whether a film built to punish the human body could clear the Certified Fresh line at 75%. It cleared it by 18 points.

Comedian Cole Garrett joins Noah to sort out how a 25-year run of groin shots and staple guns ended as the best-reviewed entry in the series, and whether a Tomatometer designed for prestige means anything when pointed at Johnny Knoxville taped into a box and rolled down a flight of stairs.

In This Episode

“Jackass: Best and Last” Rotten Tomatoes score? The only contract on the board that resolved basically live. Kalshi had the finale hovering around 64 to 68% Fresh with the embargo lifting the day of taping, and 75% was the Certified Fresh line. Then the reviews landed and the number went the other way: Jackass: Best and Last opened at 93% Fresh, the highest score in franchise history, beating Jackass Forever’s 86%. Critics used the word “poignant” on a movie built to punish the human body. A film engineered to fail cleared the prestige bar with room to spare. Cole’s take: does a prostate-exam movie deserve Certified Fresh, or did the critics get sentimental about a clip show? The market already answered. The robot cracked 75.

#1 searched person on Google this year? Trump at 18% is the favorite (over Bad Bunny at 15%) having topped Google’s year-end list three years running, with Bad Bunny rising on his Super Bowl moment and Elon Musk the volatile value pick. It measures who broke the most news, not who did the most good.

Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? Polymarket has it near 10% Yes, which is the cleanest work-life split in sports. Vrabel took a 3-14 roster to AFC East champions, a Super Bowl appearance, and a second Coach of the Year, and the only thing that can end him is an off-field affair scandal involving an NFL reporter. His MVP-candidate quarterback went on record calling him a great human being. Best coach in football, the worst couple of months of his life. Cole lets us know what is Dad probably thinks about Mike as a he’s a HARDCORE Pats fan.

A very special King of the Trolls x Cooked in the Comments crossover

New pandemic in 2026? The contract is the internet’s anxiety meter, sitting around 10%, which to a comment section reads as a personal insult. Cole works this one as the comment-section anthropologist, translating every “it’s happening again” reply guy into English and crowning the most unhinged take. Are we buying the apocalypse or selling the cruise ship?

King of the Trolls x Cooked in the Comments

The pandemic segment doubles as a crossover event. Cole reads the doomer-posters, Noah plays referee, and the most deranged comment gets its moment.

About The Spread Sheet
Your comedic entry into what is trending on prediction markets. Hosted by Noah Gardenswartz.

Each week Noah and a guest take the questions the markets are actually pricing, across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and call them. We explain them. We make fun of them. Then we give the verdict: YES or NO.

FOLLOW
Web: spreadsheetshow.com
X: x.com/spreadsheetshow
Instagram: instagram.com/spreadsheetshow
TikTok: tiktok.com/@spreadsheetshow
YouTube: youtube.com/@spreadsheetshow

DISCLOSURES
Not financial advice. Prediction markets discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.

Noah is joined by comedian Emma Willmann, host of Ask Men Anything for Betches and co-host of Inside the Closet with Matteo Lane, for an episode that runs straight through her wheelhouse: longevity that is white people B.S., working-class value instincts, and the the longest delayed video game franchise in human history.

Fresh off her own health-and-wellness kick, Emma takes the prosecutor’s chair on a man who turned his sex life into a lab report, defends the $1.50 hot dog as sacred national infrastructure, and reluctantly respects the grossest athletic event in America. Six markets. Six Yes-or-No verdicts. Let her cook.

Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? The market sits at 54%, with almost no money behind it and about two weeks on the clock. Bryan Johnson is the “don’t die” biohacker who logs intimacy as a biomarker and posts the data publicly. A companion market on whether he’d do it within a given month has previously closed at 100%. Emma runs it as an interrogation: is this wellness, or a man who found a new way to talk about himself? The verdict question: does he announce it by June 30, and is this health or just content?

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? The crowd puts a price hike at just 10%, with the no-change side holding around 90%. The $1.50 hot dog and soda combo has not moved since 1985, and CEO Ron Vachris confirmed in March 2026 the price stays put during his tenure. Emma defends the dog as sacred infrastructure and treats any hike as an attack on the community. The deeper bit: the one price in America that refuses to move is a tube of mystery meat at a wholesale club, and the country would riot over that before anything that actually matters. Does the price hold through 2026?

Will the 76 hot dog record be broken on July 4? July 4, Coney Island, Joey Chestnut chasing an 18th title. The separate market on whether he tops 69.5 dogs is priced at 100%, but his own record is 76, he managed 70.5 last year, and the over/under for the day sits around 77.5. Emma is the wellness comic now forced to respect competitive gluttony, and through the Ask Men Anything lens the obvious question lands: why is it always men? Noah keeps calling it a sport. She keeps calling it what it is. Does the record fall?

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner Jannik Sinner is the runaway favorite at 72%, with Novak Djokovic a distant 9%. Two-time champion Carlos Alcaraz is out with a wrist injury, which flattened the draw. The market has essentially filed the men’s title as paperwork. Emma and Noah get into the British relationship with Wimbledon: The Queue, the all-white dress code, the royalty in the box, and a national talent for suffering beautifully.

2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner Aryna Sabalenka leads at just 32%, the most active market on Polymarket’s Wimbledon page. The contrast is the joke: the men’s draw is a coronation and the women’s draw is an actual competition, the opposite of what a casual fan assumes. This is where the real uncertainty lives.

What will happen before GTA VI? The leading outcome is now “GPT-6 released” at around 53%. The market lists real-world events racing a video game’s release date, and the game keeps losing. Emma, proudly not a gamer, reads the list from the everyperson seat while civilization-level events get ranked as more likely than a release window. Does GTA VI actually ship before the next item on the list, and will anyone still care when it does?

Episode 4: Michael Yo on Celebrity Engagements, Trillion-Dollar Companies, and Whether the World Makes It to 2027

Noah welcomes comedian and TV personality Michael Yo, fresh off a trip to South Korea, for a fast-moving run through the markets. They cover whether Timothée Chalamet survives dating a Kardashian, who walks away with the most Oscar nominations, which company is sitting on top of the world at year end, whether anything bad actually happens in 2026, and whether the Miami Hurricanes can finally turn promise into a national championship. Each segment ends the only way this show ends: a Yes or No.

In This Episode

Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?

Noah and Michael open on the celebrity engagement watch of the year. The market currently gives it a 23% chance, down from a February peak of 59%. The collapse is the funny part. There has been no public sign of trouble, and the two have only been seen together more often, with Kylie recently getting ready mid-flight on a private jet for a last-minute New York date night. The crowd fell in love with the proposal idea in February and has been quietly talking itself down ever since. The final question: does it happen this year, and does Timmy make it out alive?

Most Academy Award nominations in 2026?

A market on which film leads the nominations board, which is really a market on Hollywood’s favorite indoor sport: the For Your Consideration campaign. Michael and Noah get into whether the trophies follow the movie or the marketing budget. Yes or No on the frontrunner.

The most valuable company at the end of 2026?

NVIDIA enters as the runaway pick, with its market cap having pushed above $5 trillion for the first time, making it the world’s most valuable public company on the back of record AI chip demand. The interesting wrinkle is everything underneath it. SpaceX ran an IPO roadshow targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, Alphabet briefly pushed past $4 trillion, and Apple keeps hitting all-time highs on AI-driven optimism. The throne looks secure. The fight for second is where the money moves. Which company, and why?

Nothing ever happens in 2026?

The most philosophical contract on the platform. A bet on whether the year passes without a genuine catastrophe from a long list of doomsday outcomes. Buying Yes is a bet on humanity having a quiet year. Buying No is a bet that something on the list goes wrong. Michael gives his read on whether he is long on civilization or bracing for impact.

College football 2027 champion?

The closer, and the one Michael has a rooting interest in. Can the Miami Hurricanes finally convert two decades of “this is the year” into an actual title? If not the Canes, who? Yes or No on Miami.

Trade the Markets

Every question in this episode is live. Links above. Odds move fast, so what you see on the show may not be what you see when you click.

About The Spread Sheet

The Spread Sheet is a comedy show built around prediction markets. Each week, Noah Gardenswartz and a comedian guest pull topics straight from the markets, talk them through, and land on a Yes or No. New episodes weekly.

The market never sleeps, and from the city that never sleeps during a historic Knicks run in the NBA Finals Caitlin Peluffo. The New York comedian (The Tonight Show, The Late Show, Comedy Central, finalist on Kevin Hart’s Funny AF) joined Noah to break down the World Cup, NBA Finals MVP, Trump insults and what product will OpenAI launch?

Get Sporty

Which continent will win the World Cup?

The tournament kicks off across North America this month, and the market has already picked its lane: Europe is trading around 71 cents, with South America at 23. Everyone else, including the host continent, is splitting single digits. Forty-eight teams, three host countries, hundreds of millions in home-soil hype, and traders still think the trophy gets on a plane back across the Atlantic.

Noah and Caitlin dug into whether the home-continent discount is real or whether traders are just pricing in a century of history. Caitlin, a former college soccer player and a recent competitor on Mia Hamm’s team in The Goal Cup, came in with actual credentials. The CONCACAF longshot case got a fair hearing. The market remained unmoved.

Who will be the NBA Finals MVP?

Spurs vs. Knicks, and the MVP market is really two bets stacked on top of each other: who wins the series, and who gets the hardware if they do. Victor Wembanyama has been the frontrunner, trading north of 60 percent, with Jalen Brunson as the obvious answer if New York pulls it off. The sneaky angle the panel chewed on: even in a Spurs win, the award isn’t automatic, and that gap between championship odds and MVP odds is where the value hides.

Power Index

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

The market that asks traders to predict the unpredictable: what does the most aggressive product organization in tech ship next? Hardware, a browser, an agent, a social feed, a device you wear, a device you resent. Noah and Caitlin handicapped the categories, which mostly turned into a referendum on how much of your life you’re willing to hand to a company that hasn’t decided what it is yet. The comedy writes itself; the resolution criteria do not.

Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?

The most reliable recurring market in the prediction economy. Roughly $710K in volume, a fresh slate of names every month, and a resolution process that amounts to refreshing Truth Social. Jimmy Kimmel currently leads the June board near 59 percent. Previous editions have cashed tickets on Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly, and Barack Obama, which tells you the market doesn’t discriminate by party, only by proximity.

This is the purest version of what The Spread Sheet is about: a market where the underlying asset is one man’s temper and the trading thesis is “give it a week.”

Make It Pop

Clavicular sentenced to prison?

The internet’s favorite legal saga gets the market treatment. Traders have put nearly $65K behind the question of whether Braden Eric Peters, known online as Clavicular, actually sees a sentencing, with “Yes” trading around 16 cents. The fine print matters here: civil suits, investigations, and public accusations don’t count. Charges dropped, plea without judgment, dismissal, all resolve “No.” The market demands a conviction and a sentence, and 16 percent says traders think the discourse is running well ahead of the docket.

Caitlin and Noah closed the show on the broader phenomenon: prediction markets have become the only place where internet drama gets priced honestly. Twitter says he’s done. The market says 16 cents. One of those has money behind it.

Full episode on YouTube. Opening Bell lands Monday. Closing Bell wraps the week Friday.

Noah sits down with comedian Fahim Anwar to trade on the questions that actually matter: who gets a seat at the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce wedding, which billionaire ends up owning the Seattle Seahawks, whether MrBeast is about to lap the entire internet, what movie takes the box office crown in 2026, and whether a natural disaster wipes out any of these predictions before they resolve.

Fahim has opinions. Some of them are correct all of them are funny.

In This Episode

• Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement on August 26, 2025, via a joint Instagram post. Reports indicate the couple favors a relatively private destination ceremony, potentially in Rhode Island near Swift’s Watch Hill property or in New York City. Polymarket currently has Selena Gomez as the frontrunner to attend at 92%. The market has turned a celebrity wedding into a fantasy roster draft. Noah and Fahim pick their starting lineups.

• MrBeast is currently sitting at nearly 500 million subscribers, with his videos reliably delivering 40 to 60 million views in the first 72 hours. The question is not whether he gets there. The question is when, and what it means that a single person on YouTube now has more subscribers than the US has citizens.

• Also on this episode

  • Who will buy the Seattle Seahawks? Fahim is from the area, is he in the mix?

  • Highest grossing film of 2026. Sorry to disappoint you, the director will be over the age of 30 and didn’t start on YouTube.

• 23:40 Will there be a natural disaster in 2026?

Trade the Markets

Every question in this episode is live on Polymarket. Links above.

About The Spread Sheet

The Spread Sheet is a comedy show built around prediction markets. Each episode, Noah Gardenswartz and a comedian guest trade on the questions the crowd is actually betting on. New episodes every week.

Watch now on YouTube

Every cable sports and news network has the same guy. Strong opinions, zero accountability. Been wrong about everything for 15 years and he’s back on tomorrow with the same crap.

We went a different direction. We called Clayton English.

Clayton doesn’t know about soccer or LA politics. He hasn’t watched Euphoria since it was good. He has no business being on a prediction markets show. We don’t care. The only credential that matters here is funny, and Clayton has more of it than anyone.

This week we break down:

Too much Drake?

There’s a real market on the top Spotify artist of 2026, and Drake’s position in it says something about saturation that the streaming numbers alone don’t. The question isn’t whether he’s popular. It’s whether his popularity and overexposure hit the point of oversaturation with three albums dropping on the same day.

Where will LeBron play next season or retire?

As Clayton asks…will he retire...ever? Or maybe Cleveland for round three?

Is the US ready for the World Cup? Who will win it?

Not the team. The country. The infrastructure, the vibes, the basic question of whether American sports culture is built to host the biggest event on earth. Clayton gives us a read from Atlanta on how it’s going.

Plus

The WNBA MVP race. And the one nobody saw coming: the LA Mayor market that now includes Spencer Pratt running against Karen Bass. Yes, that Spencer Pratt. The market is pricing it. We are not okay.

The Spread Sheet is a comedy news show built on prediction markets. New episodes weekly. Clips daily.